Probability Calculator
Classical (simple) probability is the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total number of outcomes: the chance of rolling a 6 on a die is 1/6, and the chance of drawing an ace from a deck is 4/52. This calculator reports that ratio as both a fraction and a percentage, and also gives the complementary probability (the event not happening).
Binomial mode covers the case where the same experiment is repeated n times independently: exactly 3 heads in 10 coin flips, or at least one 6 in 4 rolls of a die. The calculator uses the binomial distribution to find the probability of exactly k, at most k, and at least k successes, and plots the distribution.
Formula
Simple probability: P(A) = Favorable outcomes / Total outcomes Complement: P(A') = 1 − P(A) Binomial: P(X = k) = C(n, k) × pᵏ × (1 − p)ⁿ⁻ᵏ At least k successes: P(X ≥ k) = 1 − P(X ≤ k − 1)
Rather than adding terms one by one, it is easier to reach an 'at least one' probability through the complement: P(at least 1) = 1 − P(none). Mixing the two approaches is the most common mistake.
How to Calculate
- Choose the calculation type: simple probability for a single event, binomial for repeated trials.
- In simple mode, enter the number of favorable and total outcomes (for a die, 1 and 6).
- In binomial mode, enter the number of trials (n), the number of successes (k), and the percentage chance of success on a single trial.
- Read the probability as a percentage, a fraction, and a decimal; in binomial mode, also study the distribution table and chart.
Worked Examples
Rolling a 6 on a die
One of the 6 possible outcomes of a die roll is favorable: the probability is 1/6, that is 16.67%. The complementary probability of not rolling a 6 is 83.33%.
Probability (percentage): 16.67% · Probability (fraction): 1/6 · Probability (decimal): 0.1667
Rolling an even number
A die has three even numbers: 3 of the 6 outcomes are favorable. The fraction 3/6 reduces to 1/2; the probability is 50%, or 0.5000 as a decimal.
Probability (percentage): 50% · Probability (fraction): 1/2 · Probability (decimal): 0.5000
Exactly 2 heads in 5 coin flips
The probability of exactly 2 heads in 5 flips is C(5, 2) × 0.5⁵ = 31.25%. At most 2 heads has probability 50% and at least 2 heads 81.25%; the expected number of heads is 5 × 0.5 = 2.5.
Exactly 2 successes — P(X = 2): 31.25% · At most 2 successes — P(X ≤ 2): 50% · At least 2 successes — P(X ≥ 2): 81.25%