Probability to Odds and Logit Calculator
Probability, odds, and the logit express the same information on three different scales. Probability is squeezed between 0 and 1; odds = p / (1 − p) remove that ceiling and open the range from 0 to infinity; the logit = ln(odds) gives a symmetric scale running from minus infinity to plus infinity. The dependent variable of logistic regression is exactly this logit scale, which is why model coefficients are interpreted as changes in log-odds rather than in probability.
This calculator converts a value entered on any one of these scales into the other two, and optionally lets you enter a logistic regression coefficient (β). When β is supplied, the odds ratio e^β, the new probability after the coefficient is applied, the change in percentage points, and the marginal effect p(1 − p)·β are computed together. The results also include a conversion table for common probability values and a logistic curve drawn on the logit axis.
Probability, Odds, and Logit Conversion Formulas
Odds (in favor): odds = p / (1 − p) Odds (against): odds' = (1 − p) / p = 1 / odds Probability: p = odds / (1 + odds) Logit: L = ln(odds) = ln[ p / (1 − p) ] Inverse logit: p = e^L / (1 + e^L) = 1 / (1 + e^(−L)) Odds ratio: OR = e^β Coefficient: L_new = L + β → p_new = e^(L+β) / (1 + e^(L+β)) Marginal effect: ∂p/∂x ≈ p · (1 − p) · β Logistic model: ln[ p / (1 − p) ] = β₀ + β₁x₁ + … + βₖxₖ
The logit transformation opens the [0, 1] probability range onto the whole real line; the linear model of logistic regression is built on that scale. Odds and logit are undefined at p = 0 and p = 1, so those endpoints are not accepted.
How to Calculate
- Choose the type of value you have: probability, percentage, odds in favor, odds against, or logit.
- Type the value; both a decimal point and a decimal comma are accepted (e.g. 0.25).
- If you are interpreting logistic regression output, enter the coefficient (β) as well; leave it empty to see the conversions only.
- Read the probability, odds, betting odds, and logit equivalents together in the results card.
- If you entered β, compare the odds ratio (e^β) with the change in the probability in percentage points; the odds ratio is constant, but the change in percentage points depends on the baseline probability.
- Use the conversion table to see neighboring probability values, and the logistic curve to see how the logit maps onto probability.
Worked Examples
From probability to odds and logit
A probability of p = 0.25 corresponds to 0.3333 on the odds scale (betting odds of 1 : 3.00) and to -1.0986 on the logit scale. A coefficient of β = 0.7 gives an odds ratio of e^0.7 = 2.0138; the new logit is -0.3986, the new odds are 0.6713, and the new probability is 0.4016 — so the probability rises from 25.00% to 40.16%, an increase of 15.16 percentage points.
Probability (p): 0.250000 · Complement probability (1 − p): 0.750000 · Odds (in favor): 0.333333
From betting odds to probability
An event with odds in favor of 4 (that is, 4 : 1) has probability p = 4 / 5 = 0.80; the odds against are 0.25 and the logit is ln 4 = 1.3863. The decimal odds are 1 / 0.8 = 1.25, which in a fair bet means a total payout of 1.25 units on a stake of 1 unit.
Probability (p): 0.800000 · Complement probability (1 − p): 0.200000 · Odds (in favor): 4.000000
Interpreting a logistic regression coefficient
With a baseline risk of 10% (odds 0.1111, logit -2.1972), a one-unit increase in a variable with coefficient β = 1.1 gives an odds ratio of e^1.1 = 3.0042. The new logit is -1.0972 and the new probability is 25.03%: the risk rises by 15.03 percentage points. The odds triple, but the probability does not — and that distinction is the heart of interpreting an odds ratio.
Probability (p): 0.100000 · Complement probability (1 − p): 0.900000 · Odds (in favor): 0.111111